17:39 26/04/2017 Re: Badile - 34% chance of success
I've always reckoned that the 34% cos will have a significantly higher sp uplift than the 66% cof resulting in downside. Which is what DB was saying I think. 80p by weekend
12:55 26/04/2017 Re: Badile - 34% chance of success
It's interesting that in the TipTv interview yesterday JP says that & he and the analysts believe that Badile has not contributed much to the current SP. IMO a failure would only affect the SP by a few pence (although there might be an initial panic drop followed by a recovery to end a few pence down). Success should add a considerable amount to the SP much higher than the 2 to 1 odds of success - so well worth the gamble.
11:31 26/04/2017 Re: Badile - 34% chance of success
The in house estimate is over 40%. That's way above the average, but as ever, it's pretty much a binary event; with the exception that hydrocarbons can be found, but may not be extractable, or in commercial quantities. Really...what did the Romans do for us? Buffy
11:26 26/04/2017 Badile - 34% chance of success
Sounds much better than 66 per cent chance of failure and is actually pretty good in terms of oil and gas explorers. In relation to the the pain in the arris poster affectionately known as "EB" or ET....."go home!!" As well as being a shorter I would place in the category as a whenker. Nothing interesting, constructive or remotely useful to say. White noise =; =; B_B
9:18 26/04/2017 Re: Badile 66% risk of failure
Very much agree TP, in my opinion EB has plucked figures out of the air and tried to pick something that will hopefully have a negative affect on sentiment and cause some people to get jittery and bail out of SOU. For me, context is key, my figures are what I see as the absolute worst case scenario if you were to strip Sound back and value what could be valued. It does not however take into account the $60m in cash we have in the bank. They were simply there as a response to the 10-15p suggested by EB. For what it is worth, I think that the 63p mark that was hit recently seems to be a fairly strong support indicator and clearly suggests that the market believes Sound is worth at least that. I think given that I don't believe Badile is factored in nor is the Merijda deal with Sch - I wouldn't be surprised if we started to establish some higher lows as the 40 days roll on towards reaching TD @ Badile. Incredibly exciting times and a 33% chance of material upside across any of our 3 plays gives us all something to look forward to. as it suggests at least 1 should come in nicely.
9:08 26/04/2017 Re: Badile 66% risk of failure
Don't think for a second that EB used anything remotely scientific to get to his "valuation" ! Complete BS is his primary estimating tool. TP
8:46 26/04/2017 Re: Badile 66% risk of failure
I know a lot of people have you on ignore EB and seemingly for good reason, I don't think you have anything positive to say about Sound and it gets quite tiresome. However I am quite keen to hear how you reached your 10-15p valuation though. My figures could be way off and I am more than happy to be proved wrong, but from a bit of reading about valuations there seems to be a general consensus that 1TCF in the ground is worth between $700m and $1b as a fairly rough guide. (Everything we have heard from Sound suggests that getting at these resource should be very low cost) So if I use this rather than JPs #1 per TCF figure then we assume that resource already proved up (350 - 500) is worth, on the lower end of the scale (350 @ $700m per TCF) approximately $245m of which we get 47.5% which would be: $116m. If we look at your Meridja valuation based on the Schlumberger announcement of around $37m, that gives us a value of around $153 which is around 22.2% of our current market cap ($685m). So if the share price were to be hammered down to 22.2% of its current valuation then we would be looking at around 16.5p per share. If you took a different slant on the figures and looked at the Merijda been worth $41.5m to Sound (achieved this figure by stating that Schlumberger are chucking in $24m of seismic for 27.5% of Merijda giving a valuation of just over $87m of which Sound have 47.5%). And look at the upside in quantity then existing resources become: 500 @ $700m per TCF = #350m / 47.5 (Sound interest) = $166.25m + $41.5m = $207.75 which would be 30% of the current share price - around 22p. But again that is on the low side in terms of the value of the assets already found and places zero value in Sidi or the rest of Tendrara. It also assumes that currently baked into the price is a successful drill @ Badile and therefore a negative reaction should it be a duster. However, I think with such a heavy focus on Tendrara of late I think any Badile news has had a negligible impact on SP so assume that is it not factored into the SP at all. I am happy to hear the flip side of any argument, and know that Sound is not is all peaches and cream. There will be bumps along the road and the price will ping up and down. Good for traders potentially, not so great for LTH. But that is the reality of been invested in an O&G Exploration company.
7:58 26/04/2017 Re: Badile 66% risk of failure
The 66% risk of failure is the probability Sound is giving in their presentation. 39 days to go.
7:50 26/04/2017 Re: Badile 66% risk of failure
He tried talking down SOU and talking up GKP...all their in his history. Absolute Clueless poster who gets it wrong countless times and slinks off silent for a few weeks.
7:48 26/04/2017 Re: Badile 66% risk of failure
At times like this it is also worth remembering back in Feb 2013 --- Sound turned down a farm-in agreement for its Badile exploration prospect in northern Italy.The company received an offer from an undisclosed Italian oil and gas major but decided to retain its wholly-owned operated position at the prospect, saying: ?The offer did not reflect the potential of this major asset.? --- At this stage and potentially less than 40 days away from success do we think ENI in their back yard are still viewing this prospect with interest?
7:20 26/04/2017 Re: Badile 66% risk of failure
Lexi - he is a known trouble maker. Here and on many other boards. He shorted the share earlier this year and got burnt. Press IGNORE - or let him rant on with his uninformed diatribe and lets enjoy his pain.
7:01 26/04/2017 Re: Badile 66% risk of failure
Brent, I recall that it is written somewhere that Badile is not part of any penny in the stock price now. So how could failing to be a commercial pit be of any negative effect then. Please advice. Are you by any chance a shorter? LP
22:37 25/04/2017 Badile 66% risk of failure
As James said today they are 40 days away from the reservoir. There is 66% risk for a uncommercial well according to their investor presentation. I guess the stock would be down in the range of 10-15p if the well dosent come in.
21:31 25/04/2017 My thoughts
I posted this to facebook group. No need to go into too much detail, just my brief and honest thoughts. "Well I don't know about you lot but I liked it! He's confident and makes no apologies for the high risk nature of this company. A bit vague on timings, but I really liked the part where the seismic won't take all year before we get news. Every part that is unlocked will be mapped out and updated with gas values, like unlocking a map, these should be enough to steadily drive the sp up"
16:19 25/04/2017 Re: Malcy at tip tv
JP sounding quietly confident. Knowingly confident. I like his determination and enthusiasm. Looking forward. Thanks Cruncher