9:19 14/02/2017 Q1 Figures
These aren't really a massive surprise, with turnover up ~8.5% and the guidance of 10%+ for underlying EBITA restated and the price agreed for Travelopedia looks sensible. Everything still looks pretty positive, but, despite that, I sold ~25% of my holding this morning at a gnats whisker over #12.10 and will probably be looking for something with a bit more growth and a divi that isn't quite so complicated to fully receive, but would probably top back up on any weakness. I think they go ex-divi tomorrow, so would expect a corresponding drop in the range of 50 to 55p BB
10:58 31/01/2017 Re: Panorama effect
The inquest's under way now. Those who died can't be brought back, but hopefully lessons will be learned by both the foreign office and TUI ( and the industry in general ). It seems heartless to even discuss it, but, to a certain extent, the industry can only do so much. A step in the right direction would be for the likes of TUI to at least provide links to the official FCO site before a booking was taken, so then people would be making an informed choice as to whether to travel or not. BB
7:54 11/01/2017 Panorama effect
Oh dear The sudden fall coincides with last nights panorama revelations that the terrorist attack at Sousse, Tunisia, involving a Tui Hotel(now disenfranchised) could have been avoided or certainly limited in effect. Truly shocking and little wonder that the industry has suffered.
10:18 08/12/2016 Full Year Results
These don't seem to have made it onto iii yet, but they're much as expected with EBITA coming in at up 12.5% ( or 14.5% for continuing operations ) and a divi per share of 63 cents. Forecast outlooks from the company are >=10% underlying growth in EBITA per year though to 2018/19. There's a fair amount of investment going on which effects cashflow, partly mitigated by the sale of Hotelbeds. I'm holding for the moment but may well reduce a bit on any strength above ( *waves wet finger in the air ) say #12. BB
16:51 02/12/2016 NEW ARTICLE: The week ahead: TUI
"Monday 5 DecemberWe'll find out whether Italy has voted in favour of positive reform or more of the same on Monday. We've examined the possible repercussions of both possible outcomes. You can read more here.Trading statementEvgen Pharma, ..." http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/374034/week-ahead%3A-tui
8:33 28/09/2016 Trading Update : 12 to 13% growth
12 to 13% growth in EBITDA is marginally better than I'd expected and the market seems to agree because the sp is up nearly 3% to ~1115p as I type. Tis a shame we're now effectively a German company with a German divi policy. If it wasn't for that, I think income seekers would be all over us and the sp would be ~10% above where it is now. Holding for now, but may well reduce a bit if it gets back above #12 BB
12:29 12/08/2016 Significantly undervalued
Based on consensus cash flow estimates, this DCF model throws out a #15.86 intrinsic value for the company. http://bit.ly/2bl8vBJ From the cost of acquisition perspective, its TEV/EBITDA of 5.6 indicates a significant upside when compared to the industry?s TEV/EBITDA of 10.2. The company is realigning to become more content centric and i believe that's going to deliver significant value in the long-term
9:57 21/06/2016 The Petition is gaining support
Apologies for board hopping; but ! The petition is going quite well; ~5450 signatures so far. Although it needs a boost. https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/112044/sponsors/frRbCOsOLO6QqIN82UOX This petition was stalled in parliament since 12th Aug 15; finally green lit on 12th feb 2016. The FCA have finally replied, saying its nothing to do with them as they only deal with market abuse & insider dealing, now is your chance to have your say. If you hate seeing buys reported as sells etc!!!!!! Has already been sent to Martin Lewis, Daily Mail, Moneyweek & Watchdog. My local MP supported this petition by writing to the petitions committee to help un-stall it. There?s 650 MP?s in Westminster, So have you written to your MP? 649 to go! If this petition doesn?t reach 10,000; then imo we might as well have not bothered as it will almost certainly be filed B1N; @ 10,000 the government should respond. ONLY 8 weeks to go !!! So ? If you haven?t yet signed or indeed have but haven?t passed it on to others, then now?s the time to do so.
16:10 16/06/2016 Re: Share Drop
I've no idea to be honest JR. With the uncertainity over Brexit most of my shares are up and down ( mostly down ) like it's going out of fashion, so i'm mostly sitting tight and waiting. If some shares drop by much more then I may well try to pick up a few bargains but TUI would probably have to drop to something closer to #9 for me to think of adding to my holding here BB
15:18 13/06/2016 Share Drop
Hi BB Any idea on why this share is dropping so much. Regards JR
17:34 01/04/2016 NEW ARTICLE: Share of the week: Profit jump and breakout rally
"Shutting the door on its Winter 2015/2016 season, LSE:TUI:TUI has reassured investors that its solid business model and strong current trading keeps it on track for double-digit growth in cash profit despite recent tragic events around the ..." http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/306497/share-week%3A-growing-earnings-and-breakout-rally
22:23 31/03/2016 Re: Tui share drop - Trading Update
JetRider Presumably a combination of the Trading Update and Nomura restating a Buy recommendation with a sp target of #17.85 did the trick ? To be honest I think just under #18 is a bit fanciful in the short to medium term. Anything above #14 would be good going in the next twelve months. I still think fair value sits between #10 and #13.
18:10 31/03/2016 Re: Tui share drop - Trading Update
Bernie do you know why there is a sharp rise on the share today. Went up above #11 at one point.
12:00 31/03/2016 Re: Tui share drop - Trading Update
... and now we have a trading update saying that profit growth at the EBITDA level should be 10%+ for 2015/16 at constant FX. Admittedly, the new dividend regime that's been discussed on here makes us less attractive to UK based income seekers, but the business seems fundamentally sound and is still growing at a reasonable rate. Citigroup are either wrong or looking further forward than we can see at the moment. To be fair to them, they did say that they expect the FX effect to be a drag on profits, which it probably will be BB
12:29 18/03/2016 Re: Tui share drop today
It happens all the time though Jetrider. A broker says Sell, and some people will follow that advice ( or the price is just marked down on the back of it ), so you quite often see a dip If the broker's underlying reasoning is wrong, then the sp recovers. I think Citygroup have called it wrong. If I was underweight in TUI I'd have bought on the back of their note, but I don't really want any more exposure to either TUI or the sector in general so I just had a "meh, whatever" moment when I saw their advice and ignored it.. BB