12:09 23/03/2017 Re: Share price.
Downgrade to hold has helped push the share down. But the Broker has increased the price target upwards. The Brokers make no sense. They love certain shares but not this one. Complex financial relationships no doubt. Buyers to return soon.
17:06 22/03/2017 Re: Share price.
Last time I invoked the theory of the shorters holding down this share, I was roundly shouted at! Careful!
16:46 22/03/2017 Re: Share price.
Shorters at work again today. Very frustrating but you can't hold back the progress Sainsbury is making and it is only a matter of time before the share price reflects this.
16:24 22/03/2017 Share price.
Oh Dear! The usual one step forwards, three steps backwards trajectory of SBRY share price! Let's hope we get a bounce and soon. Bad day on the markets today and risk on trading worries to do with Trump and well??....Trump!
14:56 20/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
"The cost savings are likely to be finite and the additional sales come at what cost? -- surely they will pull down the overall margins of Sainsbury..." Games - not sure what you mean by "at what cost?" But pretty sure the overall group margins are not important - what matters is LFL margins, ie. Argos margins both pre and post merger, and the same for "old" Sainsbury. The group margin is merely a mix of two different businesses. Take M&S.... its margins in Food are much lower than margins in Clothing, etc, on broadly similar sales levels... but which is the more successful part of the business?? "Argos have been losing sales and lowering margins for years, as has Sainsbury's core business. The business case for buying Sainsbury shares of late has been the hope that this bleeding will stop." The recent sales performance for Argos has been pretty good... we still await hard evidence on the margin side, but I expect the post-deal picture to be fairly positive there too. The sales and margin picture for 'core' Sainsbury is much flatter, of course... but worth remembering the relative resilience there vs the major peers, including Asda, over the past few years. "As for the quality of the likes of Aldi and Lidl... In many areas the food items are higher in quality than some of the big supermarkets. Given the continued double digit growth of Aldi and Lidl via more planned store openings and same store innovation, it's hard not to see more core supermarket erosion of business down the line." I actually agree with you on Aldi/Lidl - the quality is perfectly good enough across much of their product lines, certainly relative to price. And I expect them to continue to take share, albeit at a slower rate than the recent past. Their issue is product range, and the limits thereof, which will necessarily cap the rate at which they can expect to make inroads to the other 89% of the market. This 89% still leaves plenty of room for successful retailing skills, and I continue to think SBRY and MRW are better placed than both Tesco and Asda, for respective reasons of scale and strategy. And, as Morrisons is proving (at least hitherto), performance on margins is largely independent of the sales line - assuming some kind of stability in the latter. "Because of the new dividend formula, which does make sense, it means your returns are falling year on year... In 2013 SBRY paid a dividend of 16.7p... this year you are looking at 10.29... Next year it's projected (but by no means guaranteed) to be 9.99." I too like the dividend policy... not so sure some others will, but you can't say it's not transparent. What the divi was in 2013 is largely irrelevant... the SP was up at 350-400p for the duration of 2013, and that too is long gone! FWIW I think there is upside to these consensus DPS figures... and by definition, to EPS too, for next year in particular. Driven by Argos/Habitat, core grocery margin resilience, and the gearing benefits of strong FCF generation. But only time will tell... "It surely is better to look at companies that are consistently raising their dividends (because of business and profit growth) above the rate of inflation?" As above, and as before... price and value, Games, price and value! I agree, it's had a strong run - up 10% YTD, very helpful to my 2017 Top Ten portfolio! - and at this sort of SP, it's now probably 'fair value' (at best?) on these consensus expectations. Any more than this will have to come from actual delivery, above and beyond, in the key areas (as above) and while I remain hopeful, it's getting to within 5% or so of my long-standing 290p target... so no better than HOLD for the moment.
10:44 20/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
Dividend yield has dropped no doubt about that,but it is a more realistic 4-odd percent now and that is a good thing really.
9:01 20/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
"Stop playing games with the figures" Which figures do you think are incorrect? Are you disputing the declining dividend, or is there something else you think is manipulated? One thing is for sure, irrespective of any personal views on food quality, there is a steady increase in the market share of Aldi and Lidl, whether you like the outfits or not and whether you think they are profitable or not -- they exist and they are opening more stores and at a faster pace than the existing establishments. Surely you can see this is what is eroding the market? It's also hard to dispute the historic decline of Argos -- prior to it being taken over by Sainsbury. Games -- Nothing manipulated in my figures -- 16.7p dividend in 2013 and 10.29p 2017 -- facts -- but let's not let that get in the way of a good story eh!!
8:27 20/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
Stop playing games with the figures. Your analysis is purely cynical. Sainsbury is doing very well and Argos is growing strongly. Perhaps you don't like to see Sainsbury doing well. Anyone who justifies Aldi and Lidl must be disconnected. If more people want to eat rubbish that's fine but there is also a strong trend toward quality and people experimenting with cookery. The Cookery Book section is one of the largest in the publishing world. Try a recipe and you will need to go to the big three to source the ingredients. Habitat continues to trade very well and the roll out will be increased over the coming years. Investors are starting to appreciate the investment opportunity here and the discount to its peers, which is partly accounted for by the continued shorting activity. Nice to see the price is rising again.
5:21 20/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
"I wouldn't say SBRY unloved... more that investor sentiment remains cautious and watchful." Bill, how long before the euphoria of the Argos addition goes off the boil? The cost savings are likely to be finite and the additional sales come at what cost? -- surely they will pull down the overall margins of Sainsbury, which have already been pulled down by the mass move into grocery sales by many and varied competition in the last 10 years -- every man and his dog now sells food items, and clothing/accessory items. Argos have been losing sales and lowering margins for years, as has Sainsbury's core business. The business case for buying Sainsbury shares of late has been the hope that this bleeding will stop. As for the quality of the likes of Aldi and Lidl, it could be understood that the public had been hoodwinked by poor quality for a year or so, but surely it's insulting to the millions of people that are still switching their custom to these guys, many years after they became recognised as a threat and started taking %'s of market share. In many areas the food items are higher in quality than some of the big supermarkets. Tesco food quality is dreadful in the main at the low end of it's product line. Given the continued double digit growth of Aldi and Lidl via more planned store openings and same store innovation, it's hard not to see more core supermarket erosion of business down the line. Surely you have a better target for your investment money than this, no? Because of the new dividend formula, which does make sense, it means your returns are falling year on year, In 2013 SBRY paid a dividend of 16.7p This year (ending this month) you are looking at 10.29 -- a 38.4% drop Next year it's projected (but by no means guaranteed) to be 9.99 -- 40% drop. It surely is better to look at companies that are consistently raising their dividends (because of business and profit growth) above the rate of inflation? Games -- Perhaps the hope of some kind of a merger is the reason to invest, and a short term sugar rush will boost the share price, to allow an exit at a profit - is that it, or is there some other massively hidden gem in Sainsbury that I'm missing?
21:00 16/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
Freudian slip there! (maybe one day eh?)
20:57 16/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
oops ARGOS not ASDA!
20:57 16/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
Like all major supermarkets they are trading flat over 1 year. (except Morrisons) Unlike the FTSE 100 which is storming ahead (for other reasons of course, I know). Just getting the share performance in perspective. I like SBRY and hold because I like the local store and I think it represents value shopping for families (who buy more basically). The discounters sell mainly lower quality and the people who go there either can't tell the difference or, if they can, they don't seem to mind. Also, I saw the ASDA tie up as positive. So there are reasons to hold. Not all doom and gloom. Brexit on the horizon is a unavoidable factor for supermarkets as the double whammy of higher import costs and consumers with less money in their pockets is a cause for concern (should things go pear shaped).
17:15 16/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
I agree scrapping multi buys is a madness but ethical! But people like multi buys and it generates sales. Habitat is a great concept with great homewares, they really need to exploit this more.
14:55 16/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
"Yeah, I agree with you, but the usual problem. I.e the shares go nowhere, and actually down 2% today... SBRY still unloved. Not sure it's ever gonna change at this rate...The results need to blow the sceptics away I suppose and these are not conclusive enough..." Domodell - or is it doomodell? Even after today's minor pull-back, the shares are up 17% in just over 3 months, and around 25% from the post-Brexit lows... hardly nowhere? I wouldn't say SBRY unloved... more that investor sentiment remains cautious and watchful. But still more to go for here IMHO. Valuation metrics are broadly pretty undemanding (unlike those for key sector peers), free cash generation is now good, the full benefits of the Argos/Habitat integration are probably still underappreciated and the relative resilience of the core grocery business - compared with much of the competition - offers considerable comfort for the competitive pressures ahead of them. I think I put a 290p 'fair value' target on this a few months back... still about right for me.
14:37 16/03/2017 Re: Trading Statement
Pyueck, Are you saying that they shouldn't scrap multi buys? I may very well be mistakeN (apologies if I am) but wasn't this one of the "directives" issues by the government to "stop misleading customers" ? Thought that was why ALL supermarkets had to cut back on them? PE