Re: Don't ya just...
|"Sorry to bore with my past glories"
Not boring at all R -- It's interesting to see how others make their wad work.
You look to have traded relatively skillfully over the years in RIO.
I'm more of a buy and yawn guy.
Looking at RIO, it's share price is pretty much where it was 10 years ago.
OK along the way there has been a divi or two, but it sure is a cyclical sucker.
Jan 2007 -- it was 2700
Jan 2008 - 6000
Jan 2009 - 1500
Jan 2010 - 2960
Jan 2015 - 3000
Jan 2016 - 1707
Jan 2017 - 3429
Hazard a guess what Jan 2018 will look like?
Will the divi be covered by cash this year -- It seems to be covered by EPS.
The trend is pretty strong upward.
Rhigos, Can you ring me when it changes and then I can dump it and sit on the sidelines for a couple of years?
Re: Don't ya just...
|gamesinvestor, " I'm on the verge of leaving commodities -- I've held these for a while, it was only ever a punt for me."
Not the case with me as have held RIO since 1997 (1st in a PEP) and a substantial holding since Jan 1998. Currently got minimum number of RIO I have held since 1998 25% of my peak holding. From June 2002 to June 2008 my share portfolio was increasing in value at the rate of about 50% pa due to commodity shares. Smaller oil companies were the most profitable a lot of them were bought up my the majors - happy days. Just checked and on peak investment in RIO I'm in profit 317%. Have traded RIO 33 times since 1997. My best trade was buying more than average number for me on 5 Dec 2008 for #10.75 (things looked bad for RIO then and in Jul 2009 they had a rights issue at #14.00 which I took up). Sorry to bore with my past glories. Last few years have not been so good for me with shares.
In previous post I forgot about VED that I also hold. Doubled my VED holding in Mar 2015 buying at #6.008 gross, halved my VED holding by selling at #9.66, 5 days ago (bad timing as yesterday closed at #10.40). Still showing an overall 31% loss as bought VED in ISA around peak.
I too got out of gambling shares when in Mar 2015 I sold GVC Holdings for 16.9% profit after holding for 11 months. The only gambling company I recall ever owning shares in.
I have a habit of doing investment based on momentum and as such RIO looks attractive. They have improved their efficiency, cut costs and reduced CAPX. Price of metals is picking up with demand. I do not expect them to rocket up to their corrected for rights peak of #58 any time soon, but #40 looks possible in a few months.
|Summary from Alliance news
"LONDON (Alliance News) - Rio Tinto PLC on Tuesday delivered a mixed set of production in the final quarter of 2016 to report full year figures broadly in line with guidance, with copper emerging as the main disappointment.
"We have delivered a strong operational performance in 2016, underpinned by our drive for efficiency and maximising cash flow. Our disciplined approach remains in place in 2017, with the continued focus on productivity, cost reduction and commercial excellence. This will ensure that we continue to deliver value for our shareholders," said Chief Executive Jean-Sebastian Jacques.
The multi-commodity miner reported annual growth in output from its flagship Pilbara operation in Western Australia, lifting production by 6.0% year-on-year in 2016 while shipments increased by 3.0%. Production of bauxite increased 9.0%, aluminium by 10%, while mined copper and hard coking coal production both rose by 4.0% versus 2015.
Production of semi-soft and thermal coal, as well as titanium dioxide slag, however, both declined 4% in 2016 versus the previous year.
Mined copper production has disappointed throughout 2016. The original aim was to produce between 575,000 to 625,000 tonnes in 2016 but that was lowered to 545,000 to 595,000 tonnes at the halfway-point because its partner, Freeport-McMoRan, adjusted targets at the pair's Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
Still, Rio Tinto failed to hits its lower target after producing 523,300 tonnes of mined copper in 2016, below guidance but higher than 2015. Operations seemed to pick up in the final quarter, with output rising 7% from the third quarter.
The Escondida mine in Chile suffered from lower copper grades while grades at Kennecott in Alaska, US, also delivered lower grades than expected. The lack of contribution from the Grasberg mine, as flagged earlier on in the year, also contributed to Rio Tinto missing its target.
In 2017, Rio Tinto has set a wide target range for copper production of 525,000 tonnes to 665,000 tonnes, dependent on Grasberg contributing once again and on better delivery from Escondida.
A total of 327.6 million tonnes of iron ore was shipped from Pilbara in the year, slightly below annual production of 329.5 million tonnes. The strong production performance in 2016 is attributable to the ramp-up of expanded mines, operational productivity improvements and minimal disruption from weather events.
Rio Tinto started 2016 with a target to ship 330 million tonnes over the full year, but lowered this to 325 to 330 million tonnes in October.
In 2017, iron ore shipments should rise to 330 million to 340 million tonnes, but the miner said that is subject to weather conditions.
Rio Tinto's Pilbara projects will help push up output this year. The second phase of the Nammuldi incremental tonnes project was completed six weeks ahead of schedule in October to add 10 million tonnes of annual mine capacity to the wider operation.
The Silvergrass project incrementally increases the Nammuldi operation by a further 10 million tonnes a year, delivering high grade, low phosphorus ore into the Pilbara Blend, with first ore expected in the first half of 2017.
The AutoHaul train and infrastructure development will continue to progress in 2017. The automated trains will run throughout the year but will retain a driver while safety and reliability systems are checked.
Aluminium production in 2016 rose 10% to 3.6 million tonnes, right on target, while alumina production was 5% higher at 8.2 million tonnes. Bauxite output increased 9% year-on-year to 47.7 million tonnes, above the 47 million tonne target, which in turn was raised from the original 45 million tonne target.
Aluminium production benefited from rising capacity at the Kitimat smelter, but Rio Tinto said 10 smelters achieved record production levels in the year. Alumina production was also boosted by the Yarwun, Jonquiere and Alumar refineries all hitting new record levels of output.
Bauxite production rose after the Weipa operation also hit a new record after improving its plant throughput and because of the system improvements implemented at the Gove operation.
In 2017, bauxite production will continue rising to 48 million to 50 million tonnes, production of alumina will remain broadly flat at 8 million to 8.2 million tonnes, as will aluminium production, guided at 3.5 million to 3.7 million tonnes.
Diamond production in 2016 from the Argyle operation in Western Australia amounted to 14 million carats while production from Diavik in Canada totalled 4 million carats, both rising 4% on an annual basis compared to 2015. The ramp-up of underground mining at Argyle and increased throughput at both mines helped push production up.
Diamond production was at the very top of the guidance range. In 2017, diamond production will be between 19 million to 24 million carats.
Hard-coking coal output in 2016 rose 4% to 8.1 million tonnes while production of semi-soft and thermal coal declined 4% to 21.4 million tonnes. Hard-coking coal output benefited from longwall and plant outperformance at Kestrel while the fall in themral coal production was the result of the restructuring of the Coal & Allied operation and the divestment of Bengalla in early 2016.
Lower thermal coal volumes were partly offset by better than expected performances from Hail Creek, Kestrel and Mount Thorley Warkworth, Rio Tinto said.
Titanium slag production in 2016 declined 4% to 1 million tonnes, but the fourth quarter saw a 12% lift in output compared to the third quarter. Rio Tinto is optimising production to align to demand and is also drawing down remaining inventories.
In 2017, hard-coking coal production will be 7.8 million to 8.4 million tonnes, 3.3 million to 3.9 million tonnes of semi-soft coking coal, 17 million to 18 million tonnes of thermal coal and 1.1 million to 1.2 million tonnes of titanium dioxide slag.
Rio Tinto said pretax and pre-divestment expenditure on exploration and evaluation in 2016 was USD497 million, with USD119 million being spent in the final quarter. In 2015, total spend was USD576 million.
Central exploration swallowed up 41% of the 2016 budget with 25% spent on copper and diamonds, 25% on energy and minerals and the remainder spent on iron ore and aluminium operations, Rio Tinto said. There were no "significant divestments" of exploration properties in 2016.
"Rio Tinto has a strong portfolio of projects with activity in 14 countries across some eight commodities. Exploration activities were discontinued in China, India and Mexico during this quarter," said the miner.
"The bulk of the exploration spend in this quarter was focused on copper targets in Australia, Botswana, Chile, Kazakhstan, Namibia, Peru, Serbia, United States and Zambia," said Rio Tinto. "Mine-lease exploration continued at a number of Rio Tinto managed businesses including Pilbara Iron, Rio Tinto Coal Australia, Richards Bay Minerals, Oyu Tolgoi, Kennecott and Weipa."
Rio Tinto shares were trading down 1.4% to 3,440.50 pence per share on Monday morning.
By Joshua Warner; firstname.lastname@example.org; @JoshAlliance
Same old message
Yes, yes, yes, we know you are good at digging it up and seemingly more efficiently.
But, but, but -- have you sold more, or expect to sell more of the blessed stuff?
Somewhat nonsensical reporting, only in my view perraps.
If you are a retailer, do you report that you bought in more stock than last year, but fail to tell anyone how much you have sold -- of course not, so why this emphasis by miners.
Games -- perhaps the reality is too hard for the public to bear - maybe people don't want to hear the truth. Still holding my small share of RIO-BHP-GLEN although I'm not sure I have a clue as to why!!
Re: Don't ya just...
|Rhigos & Games, "welcoming to have had this post Brexit rapid run up in stocks"
It is, although the commodity stocks run started much earlier. Inexplicably unless you accept 'money rotation' by money managers as a good explanation which is true, so far as it goes, although still with little logic,
That hike, completely unlinked to fundamentals or demand for product, had pretty much run out of steam until Brexit, when suddenly foreign currency earners came into vogue (see chart measured against the mainly UK-centric and GB pound-earning FTSE 250), and continue to get further boosted every time Mrs May opens her mouth (11:45 today is the next GB pound punishment session).
On top of that, the US Fed rate hike with promises of more to come in 2017 continue the strength of the US dollar and consequently the FTSE listed miners.
There has actually been a 10-15% rise in copper prices, off multi year lows but nowhere close to the old prices of the super-cycle, and apart from a few odd spikes, most other base metals have faired little better than copper.
Coal producers like GLEN and RIO have had unexpected boosts from coal after China, by far the world's biggest producer, reduced output through the limiting of working days per year for mine (and other) workers. Coal is already back to more reasonable prices, although well off its ten year lows in early 2016. I still don't see it as having a long term future, despite Trump, who actually could enact policies that would see the price slump even further than the 2016 lows.
Still, I'm not one to look a gift horse in the mouth. I've exited RIO in total for now and have no immediate plans to re-enter for the reasons given. I may trade it, but if there is to be another super-cycle, driven by India, say, I'll likely largely play it by a different route. I don't think the current prices really reflect true valuations.
I'm still holding 2 tranches of GLEN, finally back in profit, and which has a major trading profit centre not dependant on commodity prices. I'll ride that as far as I can take it. Its as much about dollar earnings than anything else though.
I'm trying not to make the mistake of exiting at break-even with relief, only to watch the price sail on much further. I've made that mistake too often in the past and having already sold a tranche of GLEN at a small loss pushing up my book cost average, was close to making it again. There are several years of opportunity cost that I wish to get back from GLEN yet.
I've had similar luck (and I must label it luck) with HSBA and some other dollar and Euro earners throughout 2016 allowing me to escape from some bad positions with reasonable returns equating to 2 or 3 years of high dividend yield and am on course for a historically acceptable return of over 20% in the tax year 2016/17, despite a large amount of housing and financial sector holdings heavily damaged by the Brexit vote, largely offset by my US dollar holdings rising due to Fx values.
Re: Don't ya just...
|R -- I'm on the verge of leaving commodities -- I've held these for a while, it was only ever a punt for me.
You hit the nail on the head quoting ROE (or ROCE perhaps also relevant). In time they are not great generators of wealth, the businesses swinging from feast to famine.
Once sold I'll be out of commodities, banks, insurance, gambling (ironic with my handle I know) and most heavy capital intensive engineering having just sold GKN and made a profit on RR.
It's quite interesting and welcoming to have had this post Brexit rapid run up in stocks, it gives one a chance to escape more lightly (or in profit) some of the holdings with poor fundamentals, and one's you realise you shouldn't have bought in the first place.
Games - It's getting tougher to pinpoint good companies at sensible valuations.
Re: Don't ya just...
|gamesinvestor, You have same general miners that I have. I also have RRS, CEY, HOC & FRES all in profit except RRS which is -4.6% (was in profit recently).
RIO SP is highest since Aug 2014. My biggest shareholding is in JMAT which has unperformed the last two years. Was considering selling perhaps up to 50% of my JMAT and buying more RIO. I am a bit nervous though about buying RIO at high and some of the fundamentals of RIO are of concern.
ROE 4.7%, 3 year average 21.4%
ROCE 8.4%, 3 year average 14.2%
On the positive side forecast for Turnover, EBIT and EPS all higher. EPS growth forecast is 146%.
Average of broker's forecasts are for dividend yield to fall 30.6%
Broker recommendations are mostly bullish but Liberum Capital have a Sell recommendation with target of 2130.
Don't ya just...
|love commodities eh?
All three of my holdings are in profit:-
BHP + 29%
RIO + 33%
GLEN + 11%
Surplus, what surplus?
Games - Shame it's only 2.2% of my wad -- still every little helps!!
Re: Iron Ore Price Decline FCast
|No problem re: the predictive text. Don't miss the bottom part of my post that the iron ore price dropping to the levels forecast still means it would be up from where it was, and RIO being expected to report strong profits next month.
Also, this is an Australian government forecast ... I really don't know how much to trust it because ithey're probably numbers which will be used when setting government budgets. Plus any fofrecast is attempting to tell the fture.
The most important figure in the post for me was the 70% of global iron ore controlled by just 3 businesses. That's a figure worth remembering, I feel.
|These are great for short term trading.I usually buy 500 and if they go up about #300 I sell,if they go down I buy 500 more and then they usually go up and I sell again using the #300 mark as a rough minimum of profit.Been doing this for a few months and up about #4000.Not sure I would want to buy them in an IG account or the like and yes the costs are expensive but it seems to work.Just hope I don't get caught on a sharp fall but if so would just hold and wait.Anyone else trade like this and any advice welcome?
|Yesterday Barclays Capital reiterates an overweight for RIO and today Jefferies Group reiterates a buy recommendation with 21.3% upside:
The way pound is falling makes the likes of RIO attractive shares to hold IMO. Today's 5.12% rise result in RIO being my biggest cash and percentage winner today. Makes me regret having sold most of my RIO shares, at one time RIO represented 14% by value of my total share portfolio. Now a mere 3.38%.
Re: Iron Ore Price Decline FCast
|Sorry Eadwig, blasted predictive text appears ignorant of the Unrede dynasty.
Re: Iron Ore Price Decline FCast
|Interesting, thanks Earwig. Thinking of flogging off the extra ones (33% of my total) I bought this time last year at #16.70. and especially so if iron ore's going to go crashing down again. But might hang in for the final divis.
Iron Ore Price Decline FCast
|Australia's government is forecasting a sharp decline in iron ore prices, attributing last year's price gains to a temporary rise in Chinese steel output and run-ups caused by speculative commodities trading in China.
The government forecasts iron ore's average price of $51.60/metric ton in 2017 and $46.70 in 2018, down from ~$80/ton currently, and cuts its 2017 outlook for iron ore exports to 832.2M metric tons from 851M previously, although the figure still is a 5.9% Y./Y increase.
Analysts expect Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Fortescue (OTCQX:FSUMF), which together control 70% of the world's iron ore trade, to report sharply stronger profits next month after iron ore prices surged up 80% in 2016.
Re: Hello !!!
"Silence (of this board) is perhaps "golden" :-)"
One of The Tremeloes' finest hits!
LKH on the flybridge Go RIO!