13:44 27/03/2017 NEW ARTICLE: Chart of the week: Top called on this blue-chip
"A lesson in tramline trading in Rio TintoI have been bullish on this share for some months, but in my COTW of 6 March, I laid out a case that the recent high around A#36 would represent a major top. I believed the decline could be significant.As ..." http://www.iii.co.uk/node/400901
9:56 24/03/2017 A glutton for punishment ...
Interesting to see: "Rio Tinto is now pleased to confirm that the effective date of Mr Henry's appointment has been brought forward and he will be appointed a director with effect from 1 April 2017." Blimey, Simon Henry only stood down as Shell CFO on 9 March and is supposed to be helping his successor at Shell, the Jessica bird, with the abacus rattling until the end of June. Perhaps she feels she doesn't need him breathing down her neck till then. LKH on the flybridge
23:14 22/03/2017 Re: Iron Ore Price Decline FCast
Following on from my posts in January ... Iron ore prices are falling back on growing doubts about Chinese demand and record stockpiles at ports. This latest from Bloomberg: "In China, futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange sank into a bear market as steel in Shanghai posted the longest run of declines this year; ore with 62% content in Qingdao fell to $84.99/dry ton, trimming YTD gains at 7.8% after benchmark peaked at $94.86 on Feb. 21." "Iron ore prices remain very elevated vs. fundamentals, and it?s only a matter of time before they normalize to below $60,? Macquarie told Bloomberg. ?We?ve had a negative view on prices for a while but they?ve held up longer than we expected.?
7:04 21/03/2017 Cu Price Fall
Repeated from the ANTO board. Copper prices slumped in Asia on Tuesday as a strike at a key Indonesian mine has ended. Live price $2.62/lb. Reuters reported that Freeport McMoRan's and RIO's Indonesian unit has resumed production of copper concentrate at its Grasberg mine. Attention is now focused on a weeks-long strike in Chile at the Escondida copper mine run by BLT and RIO. Overnight, gold prices traded higher on Monday, supported by a slump in dollar, which is on track for a fourth session of losses, after G20 financial leaders failed to make a case for open and free global trade while more dovish than expected Fed comments last Wednesday concerning rate hikes continued to support the price. More speeches from FED members ahead this week. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the central bank will likely wait until June to decide on the next rate hike in comments made ahead of a Fed policymaker remarks due on Tuesday. [I don't think they get a chance to hike or stay pat until June anyway, so he isn't saying much! - Eadwig] New York Fed President William Dudley speaks in London, while Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks in Bali, Indonesia. Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the economy at noon and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at 6 p.m. ET. Last week the U.S. central bank maintained its outlook of two more rate hikes this year against expectations from market participants of three more rate hikes. The dollar continues to weaken after these remarks. The USD weakened for a fourth day of losses, after G20 financial leaders dropped a pledge to keep global trade free and open from a policy statement at the weekend. [What a bunch of nobbers - Eadwig]
11:10 16/03/2017 Copper up
and apparently heading towards $7000 a ton. Is that why Rio is flying today? Still kicking myself for never getting into ANTO. Ah well, 110% gain on my Rio 50% top up of a year ago is some consolation.
15:47 10/03/2017 Interesting RIO analysis on RIO by Phil Oakley
This article is well worth reading. I am now more bullish about RIO prospects for 2017: https://download.sharescope.co.uk/doc/2017_02_10.pdf I have traded RIO more than any other company since Jan 1998. At 3.26% of my share portfolio value it is now roughly twice value of my average holding but 1/6th of my peak number of RIO shares which was between Apr 2002 and Mar 2004.
12:22 06/03/2017 NEW ARTICLE: Chart of the week: Ita??s doubled but this share could go higher
"Rio Tinto pauses for breathSince late 2015 when I first assumed a bullish stance on base metals and the big miners, LSE:RIO:Rio Tinto has moved up very sharply from the A#16 lows to the recent A#36 region. Back in late 2015, there were few who saw ..." http://www.iii.co.uk/node/395194
6:56 02/03/2017 Chinese Policy Changes
Playing into RIO's hands again? Or perhaps this is also something to do with the coal asset sale being in doubt? "Shares of aluminum companies soared in today's trade, at least partly due to a Bloomberg report that China ordered curbs on steel and aluminum production to cut pollution. The plan includes cuts in aluminum capacity of more than 30% across 28 cities, and by ~30% for alumina capacity, according to the report. The cuts could bring potential upside risk to aluminum, alumina and steel prices [All affecting prices of RIO's production - Eadwig] in China, Citigroup analysts say, possibly leading to a 5% loss in the country?s total aluminum production, 9% in alumina and 3% in steel."
10:33 01/03/2017 Re: Coal Assets Sale In Doubt?
Rhigos, " It is unlikely that they will commit capital required as Trump could be out in 4 years and policy changed" Indian and Chinese companies are committing the capital required to open up coal reserves in Australia, the only reserves that can really compete with USA on cost (maybe S. Africa), and you could easily argue that a future Australian government (even a state government E.g. Queensland) might change policy. There was certainly plenty of opposition to the new sea-bed coal dredging mine between the coast of Queensland and the Barrier Reef, but consent was sought and given at State level. You can easily imagine that being withdrawn in future, yet the project continues. I assume there is is some kind of legal guarantee in place to protect the capital investment required in the event of a change of heart, but I honestly don't know.
9:27 01/03/2017 Re: Coal Assets Sale In Doubt?
Eadwig, "It could be quite a blow to RIO's plans if this deal falls through after several months, especially if Trump manges the green light to re-start plans for opening up huge coal reserves in USA which wont do anything for coal prices going forward." From what I heard there is a big capitol cost of opening such coal reserves and it takes several years. It is unlikely that they will commit capital required as Trump could be out in 4 years and policy changed by a president who is less of a chump and more caring of environment. Just been looking at dividend figures for RIO. 2015 143.13p, 2016 134.36p , forecast 2017 195.25p Currently yielding 4.08%, rolling yield 4.38%, fc 5.92% SP from high earlier last month fell yesterday to -10.4%. Broker consensus stronger from hold to weak buy. IMO at current SP a strong buy for income and chance of good capital growth. Downside risk of falling profit and dividend cut as forecast dividend not fully covered.
22:16 28/02/2017 Coal Assets Sale In Doubt?
The Chinese group behind the proposed $2.45Bn acquisition of Australian coal mines from Rio has let lapse an option that would have saved it $100m off the purchase price, raising some doubts over the deal completing. However, the delay should make it easier for the group led by Chinese state-owned Yanzhou Coal (NYSE:YZC) to raise the cash required to complete the transaction in the coming months which might be the reason for the delay. It could be quite a blow to RIO's plans if this deal falls through after several months, especially if Trump manges the green light to re-start plans for opening up huge coal reserves in USA which wont do anything for coal prices going forward. I don't suppose there are many other potential customers. Meanwhile, RIO's CFO Chris Lynch tells a conference in Florida that the company plans to deliver $5Bn of free cash flow (FCF) in productivity improvements over five years, and targets $2Bn in cost savings during 2016-17. That would see a significant rise in the dividend if achieved, Rhigos! Especially 2Bn in 2016/17. Or am I getting mixed up with another miner that stated a policy for paying out a percentage of FCF as dividends every year?
13:03 28/02/2017 Dogs of the FTSE 100
Just been reading ii article posted in News section of this discussion group. You may or may not be pleased that RIO is now 29th in terms of div yield so not a dog anymore! The 10 'dogs' at the moment are in order of yield based on yesterday's closing SP: PSON, BP, PSN, RDSB, HSBC, SSE, CPI, AZJ, MKS, and VOD. I only have have shares in three of those PSN, RDSB and AZJ. The only one I would describe as a real dog is AZJ bought before BREXIT when I was not expecting a leave majority.
11:27 28/02/2017 Re: why still going down?
That's what I do :) but not yet on this one :D
11:13 28/02/2017 Re: why still going down?
I'm afraid it's my fault as I bought in a week ago and I usually get my timing wrong!
10:56 28/02/2017 why still going down?
If the market understands the current position, why is the SP still falling? 10% in a week? Grateful for any insight - thanks!