17:34 24/05/2012	Re: New poster - I'm in
Regardless, Thanks for the welcome. Like you I would be delighted with sp reaching a quid. I have to say though, it looks like a tough call from here. With 70b shares in issue and a book value of only £47b (as stated in 2011 accounts) the book value per share is approx 67p. At current market price of 27p it looks like an asset strippers dream, but that;'s a different discussion. How do we see it getting to a quid? Well it strikes me it has to first of all persuade the market that it is worth the value of its parts. Quite clearly the myriad risks and external forces are weighing heavy on sentiment and preventing this. Then it needs to demonstrate some future earning potential to suggest that it has the capacity to return the shareholder with additional value in the form of dividend and/or capital growth. No profit for 2 years is clearly not encouraging. You might feel that there are signs of improving fortunes, with medicine taken and a plausible strategy aligned to the UK economic recovery, but I'm afraid thats where it gets sticky for me. I'm not saying its impossible, but I fear its a long haul to a quid from here. Hot Fish By Hot Fish
15:51 24/05/2012	Another loan portfolio on the block
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/LYG/key-developments/article/2546290 By stutes
13:48 24/05/2012	Re: FSA warns Banks of possible action s...
Thelron, I share your view that SW is likely to remain, but I perhaps come at it from a different angle. For a while now, LBG has been following a strategy of disposing of what it describes as non-core businesses. The purpose of this is two-fold. Firstly, to streamline the operation towards a focussed portfolio of offerings that can be cross-matched to its target customer base, and secondly to reduce unnecessary strain on the balance sheet. The core/non-core business definitions are not therefore restricted solely to profit/loss positions. Recently however, the internal dialogue has moved away from the 'core' terminology, which may be be an indication that this process is nearing a conclusion. It seems likely that at some point Antonio will wish to draw a line under the legacy issues and begin a more positive commentary. So here we are, some way through the process of streamlining the brands/businesses/offereings (carefully avoiding a fire sale scenario) but intent on keeping elements that play to the target customer and are 'capital-lite'. SW would appear to meet that criteria and remains I suspect an important brand for the new, streamlined LBG. On the point of capital deployment, I would say that de-leveraging the business in itself is a worthy goal, given the particularly high current gearing position (thankfully down in last 12 but still high). The destabilising effect of money-market contraction (or even the threat of it, as we feel now) is known only too well, and were LBG to position itself with less reliance on wholesale funding, it might become a more attractive investement proposition. I accept your point that sale of a profiable business compromises top-line margin, but I would be comfortable with that, if I was sure that it (i) offered little to the strategic direction (ii) the returned capital had a positive effect on gearing/solvency (iii) the loss of income was mitigated to some degree by corresponding efficiency/simplification cost savings (iv) the bottom-line ROE is improved. So on balance I am supportive of the principal of divestement (given the above) but the big question is of course - Who's buying? Battersea Power Station, anyone! Hot Fish By Hot Fish
12:41 24/05/2012	markets will get more money printing
re article below...another round of QE across the world expected...makes the problem worse but in the short term markets have always rallied on this news By taffychaff
12:39 24/05/2012	world edges closer to deflationary spiral
World edges closer to deflationary slump as money contracts in China All key indicators of China's money supply are flashing warning signs. The broader measures have slumped to stagnation levels not seen since the late 1990s. If China were a normal country, it would be hurtling into a brick wall. A "hard-landing" later this year would already be baked into the pie. Photo: Getty Images By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International business editor6:32PM BST 13 May 2012265 Comments For the latest on the eurozone debt crisis, visit our Live Blog Narrow M1 data for April is the weakest since modern records began. Real M1 deposits – a leading indicator of economic growth six months or so ahead – have contracted since November. They are shrinking faster that at any time during the 2008-2009 crisis, and faster than in Spain right now, according to Simon Ward at Henderson Global Investors. If China were a normal country, it would be hurtling into a brick wall. A "hard-landing" later this year would already be baked into the pie. Whether this hybrid system of market Leninism – with banks run by Party bosses – conforms to Western monetary theory is a hotly contested point. The issue will be settled one way or the other soon. RELATED ARTICLES Spain nationalises Bankia as euro crisis escalates 09 May 2012 Crisis escalates as insurrection breaks German control of Europe 08 May 2012 Francois Hollande has ten weeks to avert a French bond crisis 06 May 2012 France's housing crisis 03 May 2012 Electoral silence on France's slow economic decline 01 May 2012 Hollande's 'Growth Bloc' spells end of German hegemony in Europe 29 Apr 2012 What seems clear is that China's economy did not bottom out as expected in the first quarter. It is flirting with real trouble. Yao Wei from Societe Generale says a blizzard of awful data "screams out for easing". China's electricity output – watched religiously by bears – slumped in April. It is up just 0.7pc over the last year. State investment in railways has fallen 44pc, with an accelerating downward lurch over recent months. Highway construction has dropped 2.7pc. "The data shows extreme weakness in the Chinese economy," said Alistair Thornton from IHS Global Insight in Beijing. The Yangtze shipyards tell the tale. Caixin magazine said eight of the 10 largest builders in the country have not received a single new order this year. "A wave of closures in the shipbuilding industry has yet to begin. A hurricane is approaching," said one official. Housing sales slumped 25pc in the first quarter, testimony to the zeal of regulators. This has since fed into a drastic fall in new building. Mr Thornton said floor place under construction fell 28.3pc in April. This is hardly a sideshow. The sector employs 10pc of the Chinese work-force, and a further 20pc indirectly. Land sales provide 70pc of tax revenue to local authorities and 30pc to the central government. It is the "fair weather" financing illusion, as we saw in Ireland. China's scope for fiscal stimulus may be constrained if property goes into a long slump. The property correction is deemed benign because it is planned. Premier Wen Jiabao wishes to forces down prices as a social welfare policy. Yet did the Fed not slam on the brakes in 1928 to choke an asset boom? Did the Bank of Japan not do likewise in 1990, only to find that boom-bust deflation has its own fiendish momentum? Once you let credit rise by 100pc of GDP in five years – as China has, more than in those US or Japanese episodes – you are at the mercy of powerful forces. Something odd is now happening. The People's Bank said new loans fell from $160bn (£99.5bn) in March to $108bn in April. Non-conventional lending seized up altogether. Trust lending fell by 96pc, bankers' acceptance bills by 90pc. This is astonishing data. It may not be as easy for Beijing to turn the tap back on again. Loan demand has been falling for months. Banks are offering credit. Companies are refusing to ta By taffychaff
12:33 24/05/2012	Re: New poster - I'm in / E-bonds
Hujjars E-bonds are now being actively discussed at all EZ forums- the French, Italians, Spanish are all now pushing for it - The German Chrstian Demos's are now i favour ( they are doing very well in the elections and there is an election next yr in Germany if you were not aware.) Its the only fair way fwd - a pooling of EZ debt. Thus far the Germans have benefitted from a low Euro - with booming exports & balance of trade. They have been making hay whilst the poorer south contracts and suffers. Now that the fiscal debt limits have been enforced for each country - Debt pooling is the only logical way fwd if the euro is to survive. It will happen within 9 months IMO. Next step is imminent pan-EU bank deposit Insurance - then debt pooling will follow It should have happened long ago The pressure is ratcheting up on the germans day by day. Its only a matter of time before Germany starts to contract - as it is slowly strangling its own EU export markets. Slimm By slim111
12:02 24/05/2012	Re: New poster - I'm in
Hello Hot Fish Good to see everyone’s welcoming you Don’t worry its sometimes Showdown At High Noon on here Honest give a few months I bet you urging like cat and dog All I can say it all good take it in good fun... everyone on here wants to make some good old cash. No one will agree because if you out or don’t hold Lloyds Group Shares you post grim reaper news we all doomed etc etc !! And like me my glass is always half full... believe long term Lloyds Share are a good bet at these prices or any price below £1 ..lol By regardless
10:31 24/05/2012	looks ready to explode on the upside
both rbs and lloyds are forming a base for a rally imo back to the 200dma longer term its a problem but I am expecting a short squeeze of momentus proportions as bears cash in dyor By taffychaff
9:39 24/05/2012	Banker - rethinking timimg Basel III?
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/24/uk-boe-regulation-clark-idUKBRE84N0G620120524 Better late than never. Sir King may not be happy but who cares? By stutes
8:48 24/05/2012	Re: FSA warns Banks of possible action s...
Finally After days of reading rubbish ( including my posts ) and all the in house fighting I find something of interesting to read :-) Well done theIron By regardless
8:09 24/05/2012	japan story coming here-seems similar
Zero interest rate: can Britain's consumers learn from Japan? With the prospect a rate cut increasing, Japanese consumers tell Michael Fitzpatrick how they have learnt to cope. With the prospect increasing of a rate cut, Japanese consumers tell Michael Fitzpatrick how they have learnt to cope. Photo: Alamy By Michael Fitzpatrick3:46PM BST 23 May 201211 Comments Twenty-five years ago Japan promised to outstrip even the US in terms of economic opportunity. But today the picture looks very different. After two "lost decades" of stagnation its economic history has become a cautionary tale for the West, now seen by many as suffering a similar potent cocktail of problems: in particular high national debt, low growth, low credit demand and flat wages. Four years on from the credit crunch, what lesson can be learnt from the Japanese experience: by governments, economists, bankers - and, most importantly, consumers? Learning to live with austerity, and even enjoy it, is just one survival tactic, said 62-year-old Hiroki Kamata, a typical Japanese baby-boomer who regularly ate "dinners costing hundreds of dollars" in his prime but now prefers "$10 dinners at home". Mr Kamata's high-rolling years coincided with Japan's boom in the Eighties. These were the economic golden days, burgeoned by successful firms like Mr Kamata's technology company. When the bubble burst in 1990, he and thousands like him faced a substantial downshift; the Lehman's shock led to almost ruin. "It wasn't just a question of my company's survival but the survival of myself and my partner. As the financial situation got worse I understood that I needed a survival strategy. My parents needed similar strategies during the war, and the post-war chaos. Our answer was to save and focus on guaranteed, more secure earnings." RELATED ARTICLES IMF calls for drastic action to save UK recovery 22 May 2012 Bundesbank says Greek euro exit would be 'manageable' 23 May 2012 Markets slump ahead of key EU summit 23 May 2012 Low staff levels 'could make ESM ineffective' 23 May 2012 Ireland's 'bad bank' to invest €2bn in property 23 May 2012 Lagarde: Greece must accept 'price' of being euro member 23 May 2012 Mr Kamata shrunk his company, moving out of expensive Tokyo central offices and shifted the focus of his business to ensure a much smaller but steadier income. Millions of business owners in Japan, and self-employed workers, did exactly the same. Chris Cleary, a director of Banner Financial Services Japan, said these lost decades resulted in a lot of belt-tightening, and a stoicism. "There was slowing in the velocity of money - but for that, which is cause and which effect?" he asked. However, he pointed out that there are differences between what has happened in Japan and the current situation in the UK. For a start, Japan has much lower taxes on property and VAT is just 5pc. Then there is the almost non-stop deflation over the past 20 years, which has been buoyed by a rising and strong currency (the yen). In contrast, while economic growth has stagnated in the West, countries like the UK are dealing with inflation at the same time. He also pointed out that property prices collapsed in Japan (while there has been a more modest fall in the UK) but its banks have been fairly tolerant with those who fall into arrears. Despite these differences, though, consumers have experienced similar problems. "Deflation also means that savers get almost no interest on money held on deposit, which means more caution over holding cash in banks," said Mr Cleary. "It's no accident that, after the tsunami, many bags stuffed full of cash were discovered in the destruction zone. Many Japanese people now horde cash rather than trust banks." Shares have suffered, too. By the end of 1989, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index had quadrupled in just five years. But stocks slid back below 30,000 only months later, and would spend most of the Nineties below the 20,000 line. "I bought some st By taffychaff
0:08 24/05/2012	Re: FSA warns Banks of possible action swaps
I have no information on SME swaps for Lloyds but the following is a transcript from the post Q1 RBS results presentation Q&A session. Chintan Joshi - Nomura Okay, and the second question, just a quick update on the SME swap miss selling issue, if you’ve seen any more claims or customers complaining, and any more payouts that would cause concern. Stephen Hester – The Royal Bank of Scotland Group - CEO So far, there have been, over the last three years, 67 cases that went to the ombudsman for RBS, and 66 were ruled in our favour. As for “offloading some brands” and in particular Scottish Widows which has been mentioned several times in the past, last year Lloyds did dispose of the HBOS life, insurance and pensions subsidiaries and took a loss of £1739m in the process (that amounts to almost half of the total statutory loss for 2011). If Lloyds did sell off SW (which is reported to be profitable but I don’t have any figures) what could they do with the proceeds? At the moment Lloyds is still under EU restrictions which prevent them from making a takeover or merger with a target business worth more than £500m. A capital distribution is out of the question at the moment and they are struggling to find profitable uses, within their risk appetite, for the capital they already have. So disposing of a profitable business without a clear alternative use for the capital generated seems to be counter productive. Even without the EU restrictions there is also the question of whether Lloyds could obtain an alternative investment which would produce sufficiently greater returns without incurring undue risks? In general greater returns suggest greater risk and that is exactly what Lloyds doesn’t need at this time (plus the return would have to take into account the disposal and acquisition costs). Indeed some of the drop in Lloyds net interest margin is due to a deliberate policy of disposing of profitable, but risky, business. Also Lloyds have been restructuring and simplifying their remaining insurance business, including SW, both to reduce the impact of any Solvency II capital requirements and to reduce overall operational costs. By TheIron
22:16 23/05/2012	Re: Why no consolidation?
I would hope for the last time, but I know better ... The reason RBS thought it had to consolidate is because its share price had fallen below the nominal value of the shares (25p) at which level it cannot issue new equity, which it wishes to do in order to pay pref and hybrid dividends (just as Lloyds issued new shares for same reason). Lloyds shares are not trading below nominal therefore the issue does not arise. By Orchard Gate
20:43 23/05/2012	Re: Why no consolidation?
I take it you got the response you sought. By Are Kid
17:54 23/05/2012	Re: FSA warns Banks of possible action s...
Exacty. By dimm