| 7:56 22/05/2012 | Re: Seymour Pierce |
| ..Dividend yield of 5.9%?? Its now £NIL and if/when its reinstated it will probably be much lower than before. By Tiberius3 |
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| 0:32 22/05/2012 | Seymour Pierce |
| From UK-Analyst: "Seymour Pierce reiterated its "sell" recommendation for Home Retail Group (HOME) with a reduced target price of 70p, from 95p. The broker lowered its 2013 pre-tax profit forecasts by 11%, noting concern over the weaker than expected UK market, which it believes will impact both Argos and Homebase sales. On Seymour Pierce's new targets, the shares trade on a prospective earnings multiple of 11.4 times for 2013 and offer a a dividend yield of 5.9%. The shares advanced by 1.05p to 75.65p." nk By nk1999 |
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| 20:16 14/05/2012 | Liberum |
| From Citywire: "Liberum Capital upgrades Home Retail Group as shares slump Simon Irwin, analyst at Liberum Capital, has upgraded Home Retail Group (HOME.L) from 'sell' to 'hold' after the recent slump in the share price. Pre-tax profit at the group, which owns catalogue-shopping chain Argos and DIY store Homebase, has declined almost 70% over the past three years, Irwin said, and the shares have lost 23% since the start of May and 65% over the past 12 months. In spite of these sobering figures, the analyst said it was by no means clear that the management have in place a strategy beyond cost cutting. 'We still believe that at heart Argos remains a High/Low promotional retailer and that it doesn’t offer sufficient value in branded goods, in an increasingly competitive market,' he said. However, the new, lower share price could create opportunities: 'We now think that themarket finally understands the issues that Home Retail faces and the shares could now be extremely volatile on any hopes of improved consumption or a more meaningful turnaround plan,' he said. He further noted that with net cash of £194 million at year end the company has significant reserves. Shares in the group closed at 81.25p on Friday, up 2.90p or 3.70%." nk By nk1999 |
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| 21:10 10/05/2012 | Upgrade..to 100p |
| Upgrade Company Rating Target Price Potential Upside/ Downside Contributing Broker SuperGroup Buy 500 58.1% Canaccord Genuity Corp BowLeven Hold 100 29.9% SBG Securities Home Retail Group Buy 100p 29% AlphaValue By forwardloop |
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| 15:22 10/05/2012 | Re: Singer - Sell - tp 58p |
| Mostly agree with your comments but, would not go a far at this stage to say the Company is the next Woolworths. Management has alot to do in closing stores as leases run out over the next few years. Infact, the lease terms may get renegotiated in some cases if it is to the Co's benefit. Can not see much, if anything, to give the sp a boost and I would not be surprised to see a few more dividends passed over the next couple of years. Sold today at 78p to book a loss. By foglight |
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| 14:36 07/05/2012 | Re: Singer - Sell - tp 58p |
| The Singer forecast is optimistic imho. I held shares briefly earlier this year but if you offered to sell me some now at 58p and told me I had to hold onto them for 3 months before I could sell I wouldn't go for it. Can't see any positives which will drive share price up. Lots of negatives to dive it down however, state of economy and impact on target market finances, inappropriate business model, inability to scale costs down in line with revenue, competition from Tesco on way as they expand their direct offering through stores, loss of dividend that was propping up price, etc. The next Woolworths in my opinion. Good luck to all that continue to hold ... I fear you will need it. Take what you can get and find a better investment home for your money. By Rob McD |
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| 9:05 07/05/2012 | Re: Support? |
| What do you see that might provide support here? Very little. Its only a line on a chart that for some reason the SP has hit and bounced off before. As a lot of trading is done by algos/chartists etc. It may explain why the selling seems to have stopped at that level. However, we've had results and a loss of divi since the last 2 times we tested this level. So the "support" such as it is actually rests on nothing. I was expecting a small bounce before a resumption down. However wider market woes will probably continue this down trend on Tuesday. By Tiberius3 |
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| 9:13 06/05/2012 | Re: Million dollar question? |
| It´s only because of huge discounting that Home managed these results. Sales fell 6% yet profits fell 66%, those are hugely worrying figures. http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/02/news/economy/income-debt-inequality/index.htm?source=Patrick.net&source=cnn_bin Firstly, when thinking about UK retail you need to under stand the customer. Read the above link, Moonman. Basically the same applies to the UK just as the U.S. Household debt has fuelled consumption since the 80´s but there comes a peak point. Debt fuels demand. It´s only when household debt becomes manageable that economic growth starts over. Incomes are falling, prices are rising. You have deflation on one side & stagflation on the other. It´s not a recipe for a healthy consumer environment. It´s probably both years of bad management & a worsening economic environment. Are shop leases an asset or a liability? By Hardcore Uproar |
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| 15:13 05/05/2012 | Million dollar question? |
| Hi all, Am still looking at buying into HOME but have to admit that I'm tending to agree with most of the 'sell' posts on here that without and good news it could well drop back to 60-70p ish, where it was 6 odd months ago, or maybe even lower if the shorters really go mad. I invest in Tesco and a lot of the posts on that board are similar (albeit sadly in a slightly more agressive manner!) as far as the problems the business faces. Even the doomsday posts predicting the demise of Tesco as we know it have cropped up once or twice which leads me to my question. How much of HOME's drop in sales are generally considered to have been a result of management failings or business model problems I.e avoidable and how much is due to the recession/trading environment that we're in, I.e unavoidable? Thanks in advance folks! :-) By MoonMan1977 |
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| 22:57 04/05/2012 | Re: Support? |
| Tiberius I am not sure if you could call this line support as it was back in December. You have identified that the dynamics have changed here and they most certainly have. The question you must ask yourself is what good news is on the horizon to change that dynamic? I don't see anything positive really, I am afraid. What do you see that might provide support here? By Loseyourshirt |
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| 16:36 04/05/2012 | Support? |
| Dropped at the open and then flatlined all day. Holding at a line that offered support back in December. We might bounce here. Although the dynamic of this share is now very different as we have no divi for shorters to worry about. By Tiberius3 |
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| 10:25 04/05/2012 | Re: results summary |
| these will go down further, unless they become competitive with Amazon, i went to buy 'patch perfect' in homebase, - priced 29.99 £ for a 3 kg bag!, scansearched on amazon on the spot - 19.99 with free P&P on prime, bought it one click - delivered next day, came back empty handed but 10£ wiser out of homebase!. Unless they learn quickly they won't survive. By alex2069 |
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| 16:06 03/05/2012 | results summary |
| Argos and Homebase owner Home Retail Group (HOME) saw sales fall by 6.2% to 5.5 billion pounds in the year ended 25th February, with pre-tax profits tumbling 66% to 90.2 million pounds. Despite cries coming from all sides, including brokers Panmure Gordon and Seymour Pierce, the group refused to declare an aggressive store closure programme for Argos, with plans to close just 10 of its 748 outlets in the new financial year. Investors were also dismayed to find that the group will not issue a final dividend, leaving a total dividend for the year of just 4.7p, compared to 14.7p in 2011. Shares in Home Retail crumbled by 13.45p to 87.55p By forwardloop |
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| 21:51 02/05/2012 | Re: info |
| Forwardloop Sadly - that sums things up pretty well. At the end of the day the model is no longer working. A lot of what Argos offers is good stuff. If you know what you want and want it NOW and don't mind paying a bit extra for the flexibility then that is good. There are a decent amount of "unmolested" reviews that help you to make up your mind, and their returns policy is very easy and trouble free. Their downfall is that they now have expensive rents to pay, the opportunity to impulse sell whilst customers are in store are miniscule and most importantly, delivery speeds and costs from competitors are falling all the time - and the actual goods are almost always cheaper. They are between a rock and a hard place. A business model that is still generating but is beginning to fail. Accountants say close some stores and revenue declines even faster and customers less likely to travel further to find a store. Turn to online only? Customers are beginning to be offered the same product from multiple merchants via single portals like Amazon and Ebay. What use will Argos be then? I cannot see them surviving in the long run and I am afraid I am short here. By Loseyourshirt |
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| 19:54 02/05/2012 | info |
| http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2012/may/02/home-retail-argos-dividend By forwardloop |
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