| 9:59 24/05/2012 | kilts |
| dunce on ice raises a fascinating prospect of a currency for Scotland called the kilt. I'm sure Alex Salmond will talk up its virility and have the kilt notes adorned with the hairiest sporrans imaginable. But like a traditional kilt it will be all show with nothing much underneath. By axolotl |
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| 23:00 23/05/2012 | Re: ...but i'm still waiting... |
| ...what a wasted talent....jeez! Grow out. By dalyan |
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| 13:43 22/05/2012 | ...but i'm still waiting... |
| it's always useful to hear a view from scotland, if i've got the poster's location correct, where g-man confidently awaits the collapse of houseprices; well such a thing that might well happen if ultra-nationalists lead scotland out of the uk-sterling zone, along the lines of greece vs the eu and the imminent drachma, i imagine the independent scots will then issue a new local currency called 'kilts' and houseprices in scotland, measured in kilts, will bubble and finally collapse into g-man's short arms... ...personally like the song says, don't wait for me but i'm still waiting... meanwhile in london the 3-month chart may well be kissing the 200-day ema but which way is up? By dunce on ice |
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| 13:44 21/05/2012 | Re: really? |
| Sell your house. Live in a tent. That's the ultimate housing market short. You'll have to share your sleeping bag with Mr Jockey & maybe Jonga. Nothing like a cosy 3some. You can hedge by buying a trailer park (you'll have to share your sleeping bag with Britney Spears ............. maybe .............). By malj1 |
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| 12:56 21/05/2012 | Re: really? |
| Now is NOT the time to be getting a mortgage! JEEEZ! Wait until prices come down - I'd rather pay high interest for a couple years for a low value asset than low interest for yonks on a high value asset! Anybody know how I can go short on UK housing other than shorting builders? Is there the equivalent of a credit-default swap for private investors?? By guitarman001 |
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| 13:04 18/05/2012 | Re: really? |
| Try charting the last few months instead. Good luck with hyperinflation following a collapse in credit. By MrJockey |
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| 12:18 18/05/2012 | really? |
| "BDEV chart looks horrific." really? to me the chart looks like, the cliff-fall of the credit-crunch followed by a fairly stable up-and-down oscillation a bit north of one pound (coincidentally, the price of rights-issue shares) within clear levels of support and resistance; to me it looks like we're going down now but in the medium to longterm probably up; but i'm just guessing, same as everyone else "Now is not the time to be saddled with massive debt." really? to me, now is the time to get a mortgage, before the next huge inflation which will realign the macroeconomic background, eurozone wise... but i'm just guessing, same as everyone else By dunce on ice |
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| 11:50 18/05/2012 | Re: Gap in Price on open |
| Part of the problem is relative to many other developers BDEVs discount to NAV isn't that big anymore. There are perfectly healthy developers out there with discounts to NAV now of 70 or 80 percent, with the discounts existing just because they exist and haven't gone away since 2008. The share price has more to fall. I'll start buying again at sub 100 and continue as it goes down. By gothicform |
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| 23:49 17/05/2012 | Re: Crocodile Tears: Industry Report... |
| "The only way for builders to raise more cash is squeeze working capital - ie raise prices. UK quoted buider l/b's & cashflow are currently reasonably stable: sell 1 unit & buy 1 plot. Price rise ca +20% will shift this to ca sell 1 unit & buy 2 plots. This is the solution, unpalatable as it will seem to many." Higher prices = less volume = less profit = worsening credit rating = debt downgrade = share price collapse. Then a solvent builder will buy BDEV lb and build proper houses made for normal families with proper walls and proper copper pipes and fittings, not plastic rubbish, with decent gardens and somewhere to park. BDEV chart looks horrific. Now is not the time to be saddled with massive debt. By MrJockey |
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| 23:20 17/05/2012 | Re: Crocodile Tears: Industry Report... |
| '... pray for a passing backer...' i don't understand why any poster thinks that responsibility for financing the nation's need for homes should fall on the housebuilding industry rather than on the nation's government; personally i'd be happy if bdev took care of its shareholders let alone have any hand in deals to make all the poor homeless in the nation rich. Presumably the next steps in this vision of economic reforms include doctors asked to pay for the health service and bankers asked to find a bankroller to shoulder the nation's debt. in case anyone cares, today's 3% fall in bdev's sp is all greek to me... By dunce on ice |
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| 14:53 17/05/2012 | Re: Crocodile Tears: Industry Report... |
| True your not a PSN or BKG and BDEV still have got to write down their land bank values. But you got to agree that they need another method of building up a solid sp with long term growth. Still you've got a land bank, so there's a deal to be made. BDEV needs a middle east, well any, bankroller to JV with on deals to add wealth. Until then move your chair closer and get your fingers out to plug the holes and pray for a passing backer. Or maybe the management could go seeking a suiter. By redbeard101 |
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| 14:00 17/05/2012 | Re: Crocodile Tears: Industry Report... |
| The UK housing supply is massively low compared to inalienable demographic need, which in turn continues to inexorably rise - ie the cumulative undersupply gets ever greater (aka pricing pressure). The only way out is to build more houses (or never again have sex & make babies, or kill oaps - even Dave, George & Nick will have a tough time selling these 2 'solutions', or all live in tents). All builders have dramatically cut their l/b's. In order to accelerate housebuilding they will need to buy dramatically more land. UK buildrate is ca 130k pa, but demographic need is now ca 380k pa. But the banks won't lend & the shareholders won't supply the dosh (cf: Redrow - & anyway 70% of UK housing comes from builders who don't have stock market quotes). The only way for builders to raise more cash is squeeze working capital - ie raise prices. UK quoted buider l/b's & cashflow are currently reasonably stable: sell 1 unit & buy 1 plot. Price rise ca +20% will shift this to ca sell 1 unit & buy 2 plots. This is the solution, unpalatable as it will seem to many. Until then we contiune to play musical chairs - ever fewer chairs & ever more people dashing to occupy one of them when the panic-mood music stops. Sooner or later house prices will explode. But like I say, that is the solution not the problem. The longer the outcome is delayed the greater the eventual explosion. Houses don't grow on trees - they are built on land (for a commercial return). By malj1 |
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| 11:58 17/05/2012 | Re: Crocodile Tears: Industry Report... |
| I don't know about all developers, but Barratt Developments were over a billion in debt, and still are in major debt, so I’m not sure we can say they have billions to fix the problem. In any case, even if they had loads of money, if they built enough houses to satisfy everyone they would have to give their homes away because the housing market is broken; people can't afford homes in the required numbers because banks don't lend like they used to. If the developers give houses away they will make massive losses and go bust, which might upset shareholders. Personally, I’m not sure anyone can make a big difference to the broken housing market; we probably just have to go through some pain. Just my thoughts for what they’re worth… By DoshBunker |
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| 9:34 17/05/2012 | Crocodile Tears: Industry Report... |
| http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18098956 Crocodile tears from House Builder institutions as The National Housing Federation and the Chartered Institute of Housing employs Shelter to front claim that the Government isn’t doing enough. It may be true that we do not have enough housing in certain areas of the UK and Shelter are there doing great and valued work, but to say it’s the Governments fault is a little rich. The House Building Industry has been helped out by numerous successive governments and it is still is through policy and tax savings, whether it be zero rated VAT, stamp duty holidays, planning policies, etc. – the list is endless. Really it is time for developers to do some navel gazing and utilise the Billions that developers have in the bank to put it right. This could be done through numerous ways maybe taking less ROCE, which is really short termism, but would fit into their present quick profit structure or maybe they could bring in business to developments and build up the areas long term wealth to sustain the build out of the development. Bringing in business could be achieved through direct investment in the business i.e. shareholding, commercial funding, etc. or even cross shareholding, this would give long term commitment to development and area, so giving confidence in the proposed development. Maybe all large planning applications should include a section on ‘Long Term Wealth Benefit of the Proposed Development’, would bring to an area. Stop hiding behind the petty coat of Shelter and tarnishing their good name and be proactive. By redbeard101 |
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| 21:08 15/05/2012 | lucky shot |
| ..not that i know anything more than you do, dear reader, but on 24th april i chanced my arm and posted a fairly obvious comment ("...it does look like the sp is heading down towards and possibly across the long-term moving average line, dunnit?...") and now see where it's got to... By dunce on ice |
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