20:30 08/09/2010 Spud imminent
And a run back to 120p at least is on the cards. Broker target now of 169p but unrisked target is over 1100p. EPS for 2011 are penciled in for 57p, putting them on a p/e of 1.5. I would think 15 would be more like it. By discretionary1
14:48 08/09/2010 EK Buys into GED
As of today. By noidea1960
22:17 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
I had this failure down as being 1P reserve but if not then let's call it 2P. Either way the sell off was/is overdone. The ratio of reserves to Mkt Cap is in my top 10 of circa 40 oilers with BOPD expected to more than double from 3,500 by year end to 9000 in next 3 years. By noidea1960
18:09 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
OK to be picky its 90% for P1 reserves. Maybe it should not have been P1 since they did not just abandon the well they abandoned the licence.
The 2009 annual returns on page 8 states.
"All the wells to be drilled are defined as development wells by RED as they will be drilled in proved locations or are located on identified
geologic structures".
By happypills
17:00 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
Happypills - If you think these kind of statements imply 100% slam dunk success you are investing in the wrong game. Please post why you think this was anything other than an exploratory drill as I have seen nothing to suggest otherwise.

"Global Energy Development PLC, the Latin America focused petroleum exploration and production company (LSE-AIM: "GED"), is pleased to announce that it has signed a rig contract with Saxon Energy Services de Panama S.A. ("Saxon") for the drilling of the Rio Verde 2 exploratory well within the Colombian Rio Verde contract. While the well is deemed exploratory it is located on an identified geologic structure over which the Company has previously acquired 3D seismic."

You'll note that the last sentence does not say the company has drilled a well on the structure therefore I really don't see how you can conclude it was a slam dunk.

"The Rio Verde-2 well, the first in the programme, was an exploration well, but close to the producing Boral-1 well."

The main problem for GED with failing is it burns cash and time. I am happy to pick the shares up at half price as there is no way they lost £15-20 million with this failure. By livic1971
16:48 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
To be fair HP, P1 reserves have a 90% success rate.
Nothing was ever 100% especially in the oil business.

Only thing you can criticise them for is their original RNS on Rio which I confess looked amateurish.In fact I didn't quite know what to make of it so I sold out at 112p I think it was.

I've been buying back under 70p as there's no doubt they were undervalued.

Rgds By mr1christian
15:57 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
Rio Verde 2 was a slam dunk production well, targetting proven P1 reserves. COS was nearly 100% and that's why the shares tanked, no faith that the BoD know what they are doing. They mistaked water for oil for goodness sake. By happypills
12:48 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
"Global Energy Development PLC, the Latin America focused petroleum exploration and production company (LSE-AIM: "GED"), is pleased to announce that the Rio Verde 2 EXPLORATORY well within the Colombian Rio Verde contract was spudded on 26 March 2010."

It may have been derisked somwhat by the fact they are proved formations elsewhere on the block but those could be quite some distance away so that hardly makes it a certainty does it? Exploration drills have a CoS ranging from about 8% to about 40% so failure is not exactly unheard of or unusual... They gave the area back.

"Now focused on development of RELATIVELY low-risk, producing, cash generative Tilodiran field" and "the Tilodiran 4 well, is contractually required and classified as a proved undeveloped well"

It does not say risk free but it does imply less risk than the first one. By livic1971
12:03 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
COS 20% ?

"The well has a proposed total depth of approximately 12,500 feet and will target three different formations - Mirador, Gatcheta and Ubaque - all being proved formations with other wells inside the contract area."

"Proved formations with other wells inside the contract area"

My initial thoughts were that it must of had a COS greater than 20% based on theres proven producing reservoirs in that area, just like the next well on the Tilodiran field

By dicko80
11:55 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
It was an exploration well and tested non-commercial oil from one of the four zones. I am no geologist, but most of these projects have CoS of ~20% so I am not convinced its that much of a surprise.

"The well has a proposed total depth of approximately 12,500 feet and will target three different formations - Mirador, Gatcheta and Ubaque - all being proved formations with other wells inside the contract area. The well is expected to be drilled, completed and tested by end of April or beginning of May 2010."

The next well is not an exploration well from what I can see so I see less risk of failure and the Tilodiran wells seem to produce quite a lot of oil for a company with a market cap of ~£20-25 million.

"The next well to be drilled in the Plan, the Tilodiran 4 well, is contractually required and classified as a proved undeveloped well. It will be located within the Tilodiran field near to the producing Tilodiran 2 and 3 wells, with the exact location yet to be determined."

"Now focused on development of relatively low-risk, producing, cash generative Tilodiran field within Rio Verde contract, Colombia. Previous Tilodiran field well tests (approx): 860 bopd (Tilodiran 2) and 1,280 bopd (Tilodiran 3)." By livic1971
11:42 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
I am glad there are a few that think like you or else there wouldn't be stupidly priced bargins

..............................

How rude ! lol

My point being was it merely bad luck or a bad choice for the location of the well ?

By dicko80
11:37 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
Dicko - I didn't find it particularly worrying as they produce profits consistently (~$7 million for 2007 and 2008 prior to the oil price slump and even made $0.7 million in 2009) and they lost 50p per share for losing less than 1% of their P2...

http://www.globalenergyplc.com/uploads/InvestorJuly10.pdf
It went from 115p to 70p on less than the volume we have had this morning.

I am glad there are a few that think like you or else there wouldn't be stupidly priced bargins The best time to buy is after bad news as long as its unlikely to have much long term impact... By livic1971
11:26 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
Hi Livic

Was actually researching this last night, potential is massive but it is worrying to read what happened with their first well of the 3year plan...

But I'd agree its oversold....
By dicko80
11:11 07/09/2010 Re: Promising
Indeed - See my posts on 15th and 16th June. By noidea1960
10:03 07/09/2010 Promising
Volume is looking promising. I picked up a few mid 60s as it seems to have lost a lot of value for something that in the greater scheme of things was minimal.

"The impact of the Rio Verde 2 well result on the Company's reserves is estimated at a loss of 0.9 million BOE probable reserves (from the Company's total proved plus probable ("2P") reserves of 147.1 million BOE) and 3.1 million BOE probable plus possible reserves (from the Company's total proved plus probable plus possible ("3P") reserves of 272.9 million BOE)."

The directors buys at 72p support the idea that the bad news was overblown and the ~£20 million market cap is hardly demanding given its producing 180K barrels every 6 months and its updating the market soon which should help interest.

"Global Energy Development PLC, the Latin America focused petroleum exploration and production company (LSE-AIM: "GED"), intends announcing interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2010 on 16 September 2010 and ahead of these results is pleased to provide an update.

In line with expectations, the Company's base of production continues to show moderate decline rates with production for the period of 183,660 barrels of oil (net to the Company) against 199,403 barrels for the same period in the prior year."

Its also got drills coming

"The Company is currently negotiating the terms of the rig contract for the Tilodiran 4 well, which it expects to sign shortly, with rig mobilisation expected to commence in Autumn 2010, with the well drilled, completed and tested prior to 31 December 2010." By livic1971